Thanks Dan. I will submit it. For what it's worth, my troubleshooting led me to the analysis mask. Removing the mask for focal stats allowed it to run without shifting the result, for some reason. I'm not sure why that worked, but hopefully Esri support will be able to figure it out. I added the mask back after running focal stats and it clipped the results of future tools to my study area. (Note: this worked for my workflow, since I was ignoring no data cells in focal stats)
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