Latest Contributions by ChristyLazicky

I have a set of polygons (~700) that comprise a country and want to use GWR to forecast incidences of violence against civilians. Is it possible to use a subset of the polygons to build the model and then somehow feed in the second subset (that hasn't been used to build the model) and make predictions on those model? Basically, I want to see how good my GWR model is on out-of-sample predictions. Thanks! ... View more

I'm trying to build a model in ArcGIS to predict whether or not a certain land feature will have a conflict event. My data is set up as follows: I have a country divided up into ~700 polygons. Each polygon has a binary indicator to show whether it has had a conflict event (conflict=1) or not (conflict=0) in the past year. Each polygon feature also has many other attributes that I'd like to use for the prediction (e.g. land type, elevation, population, income, food security, etc.). I'd like to build a model using roughly 70% of the polygon features and then test the model's accuracy on the remaining 30%. I'm separately building a model in Python but I also wanted to use ArcGIS to take the spatial element of conflict into account. What is the best tool in ArcGIS to do this? I've been looking at the Geostatistical Analyst toolbox but it seems like those models only do extrapolation / prediction using information from the outcome variable (and don't take other attributes about the feature into account). I also know I can use GWR to assess the impact of each predictor variable but I'm not sure if I can use that to predict conflict on a test set of data and measure the model's accuracy. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated! Thank you! ... View more