The Community Profile report appears to combine Census data with Esri forecasts to estimate population totals, households, and housing units in 2010, 2020, 2022, and 2027. I've compiled this data for a municipality in New Jersey that shows an increase in population, households, and units from 2010 to 2020, then a small decrease across all three estimates from 2020 to 2022, and finally another increase from 2022 to 2027. This pattern was not the same for larger geographies such as the surrounding 20 minute drive time area or the county, which all increased at each benchmark year. Is there a simple way to explain why this discrepancy exists at the municipal level but not others? I understand there were some issues with data collection for the 2020 Census and also that a temporary decrease in population/households may be possible at the local level given things like COVID deaths or out-migration (though the same trend occurring in housing units seems a little harder to explain). Is it simply a difference in the methodology used to estimate the 2022 forecast versus that used to determine the 2020 count?
